Where Will the Change Come From?

A few weeks ago, I posted a summary around the November LCB Big Question "Are ISD / ADDIE / HPT relevant in a world of rapid elearning, faster time-to-performance, and informal learning?":

eLearning Technology: Significant Work Needed to Help Instructional Designers

Some interesting thoughts in the comments. One thing that just struck me was a comment by Mark Oehlert that suggested we re-engineer the way professors teach ISD. In thinking about that comment, a few random things dawned on me:

1. Fundamentals Okay, But Change Needed

When I look at what people are writing, there is a growing chorus that proclaims while the foundation of these models remain relevant, change is needed.

2. Where are the ISD Gurus in this Discussion?

When I think ISD/ADDIE/HPT, I think of Allison Rossett, Harold Stolovich, and Ruth Clark. Yet, I don't see them saying much of anything about these changes. Heck, do any of them even have blogs? Do they communicate outside of the slow mechanisms of presentations, articles, books? If we are in disarray (as Karl Kapp says), then do we expect a new guard to step forward and lead this?

3. Will the Change be Emergent?

I'm doubtful that we will see the Gurus step forward and lead the change. I really doubt that we will see forward thinking professors start teaching about a different model before that model emerges elsewhere.

At a Web 2.0 event that I moderated, one of the speakers was Matt Glotzbach, Head of Products at Google Enterprise. He made a really interesting point that with ready access to all sorts of new services, adoption was likely to now start with Consumers and Prosumers and then migrate into organizations. Thus, much of the focus of Google Enterprise was to see what works in the consumer space and help bring it to the enterprise.

Combine this with the concepts of Enterprise 2.0, Emergence and Network IT which suggest that rather than trying to define workflow, rules, function ahead of time, we provide relatively free form tools and allow behavior to emerge and then provide better support.

Finally, combine this with the discussions around Informal Learning that suggest the support for informal learning approaches will be emergent as well.

What do you get?

What's likely to happen here is that all sorts of innovation in learning, knowledge management, etc. is going to occur in the consumer, prosumer and in uncontrolled pockets in the enterprise. We'll examine what's working and not working. We'll grab stuff that works and fashion theory and support to help it grow.