Coming as little surprise to those who follow new media, the Audit Bureau of Circulations, the organization that audits newspaper and magazine subscription numbers, reported Monday that the average weekday circulation of US newspapers fell by 2.6% between March and September of this year. The New York Times was one of the few papers whose circulation rose (slightly) in the past year, but on the whole, major US dailies lost readers. One of the hardest hit was the San Francisco Chronicle, whose circulation shrank by 16.4% in 2005.
Newspaper readership has been shrinking steadily for decades, with television, shortened attention spans, 24-hour cable news, hectic lifestyles, the Internet and restrictions on telemarketing all blamed for its demise. But newspapers are not alone in their pain, as Chris Anderson of the Long Tail illustrates in his neat summary of media winners and losers.
Down significantly along with newspapers are movies (theatrical releases), music CDs, books and AM/FM radio. Magazine sales are flat. The fragmenting of audiences makes for lower ratings of individual TV shows, though overall viewership is rising. Even the numbers for videogames and DVDs are mixed.
What's rising? Internet use (reflected in the growth in online advertising), digital downloads and streaming of music, and satellite radio (likely to get a shot in the arm once Howard Stern moves to Sirius). Total numbers for these media, however, remain well below those of the old guard.
UPDATE: Newspapers, to their credit, realize that their survival depends on their moving online. The UK's Guardian Newspaper group plans to devote up to 80% of their efforts on digital activities over the next few years, as opposed to 20% now.
UPDATE: Terry Heaton comments on the possible forced sale of Knight-Ridder, the nation's second-largest newspaper publishing chain whose prominent titles include the Philadelphia Inquirer and the Miami Herald. Though the fate of the chain is far from sealed, Cleveland Plain Dealer editor Dough Clifton sums up the situation by saying, "There's a whole range of options, none of them especially pretty."
UPDATE: In light of its fallen readership numbers, the LA Times plans to eliminate 85 jobs between now and the end of the year. The Chicago Tribune plans "fewer than 100" layoffs within the next several weeks.
Wednesday, November 9, 2005
Bill Gates Considers Web 2.0 Services a "Sea Change"
Some people may be dismissing Web 2.0 as hype, but not Bill Gates. In a letter to Microsoft's leadership, Gates warned that the shift to Internet-based services represented a major "sea change" that would require the company to "act quickly and decisively" to meet its competitors.
"This coming 'services wave' will be very disruptive," Gates wrote. "We have competitors who will seize on these approaches and challenge us - still, the opportunity to lead is very clear."
Recently, Microsoft launched its "Live" initiative to port some of its flagship products to Internet platforms, putting it in direct competition with Google, Yahoo and others.
In technology trends, Gates has a history of making sure Microsoft becomes the life of the party--or at least the center of attention--even after showing up late. A decade ago, Gates refocused Microsoft on Web initiatives after having been caught flat-footed by the likes of Netscape. The result was Microsoft's continued dominance in an Internet-driven business environment, while leaving much of the innovation (and risk) to others.
Source: AP (via Excite)
"This coming 'services wave' will be very disruptive," Gates wrote. "We have competitors who will seize on these approaches and challenge us - still, the opportunity to lead is very clear."
Recently, Microsoft launched its "Live" initiative to port some of its flagship products to Internet platforms, putting it in direct competition with Google, Yahoo and others.
In technology trends, Gates has a history of making sure Microsoft becomes the life of the party--or at least the center of attention--even after showing up late. A decade ago, Gates refocused Microsoft on Web initiatives after having been caught flat-footed by the likes of Netscape. The result was Microsoft's continued dominance in an Internet-driven business environment, while leaving much of the innovation (and risk) to others.
Source: AP (via Excite)
FreeCharge Weza: Batteries Not Necessary
Freeplay Energy, a company that manufactures hand-charged radios and lights, now offers the FreeCharge Weza, a multipurpose electrical charger that is powered by a step treadle.
Just step on the treadle, and you can create enough AC or DC energy to jump-start a car or boat, or charge an electronic device. Clearly, it's an ideal solution for emergency situations, both ordinary (car won't start in a desolate parking lot) and extraordinary (disaster relief, especially in developing regions). It's also compatible with solar panels and wind-powered turbines.
But if you plan on adding the FreeCharge Weza to your holiday gift list, you'll have to take a raincheck. The $300 device isn't scheduled to ship until next spring.
Source: WorldChanging
Just step on the treadle, and you can create enough AC or DC energy to jump-start a car or boat, or charge an electronic device. Clearly, it's an ideal solution for emergency situations, both ordinary (car won't start in a desolate parking lot) and extraordinary (disaster relief, especially in developing regions). It's also compatible with solar panels and wind-powered turbines.
But if you plan on adding the FreeCharge Weza to your holiday gift list, you'll have to take a raincheck. The $300 device isn't scheduled to ship until next spring.
Source: WorldChanging
Low-Power Wireless Broadband
Could a wireless network be built with inexpensive access points that have a range of miles instead of feet, and that can run on long-lasting watch batteries?
xG Technology is developing hardware for such a network, which is currently being piloted in Miami. The xG hardware operates on the 900MHz band and can send a signal up to an 18-mile radius. Single cycle modulation allows the access points to use much less power than conventional devices.
The hardware still needs further testing and FCC approval, but technologies such as this suggest a solid future direction for wireless networks.
Source: Minding the Planet
xG Technology is developing hardware for such a network, which is currently being piloted in Miami. The xG hardware operates on the 900MHz band and can send a signal up to an 18-mile radius. Single cycle modulation allows the access points to use much less power than conventional devices.
The hardware still needs further testing and FCC approval, but technologies such as this suggest a solid future direction for wireless networks.
Source: Minding the Planet
Monday, November 7, 2005
Video iPod as the New TV
Jeff Jarvis believes that the video iPod is not just a new gadget, but a media revolution. He notes that already, the video iPod is usurping the role long held by that other great, paradigm shifting media device, television, as advertisers are producing commericals for video iPods. Jarvis sums it up by saying:
Jarvis also notes the mobile porn phenomenon as one more example of how rapidly the video iPod is becoming a media force all its own.
Similarly, George Simpson makes the point in Online Media Daily:
However, don't expect your favorite blog or podcast to jump on the videocasting bandwagon right away. Expense and technical expertise aside, the written and spoken word doesn't necessarily translate into compelling video. The videocasting future will belong to those who can think visually and translate their ideas into something an audience will want to watch... not talking heads. However, this will require developing new metaphors and visual techniques. Videobloggers already have a jump start on this, and these folks -- rather than the mainstream media -- may lead the way in videocasting innovation.
I say that what really needs to happen is for sponsors to add their commercials to the vlogs and shows I'm watching now. Ad agencies are whining about measurement. Well, wake up, fools! TV is exploding. People are watching TV online and on their iPods and you're not there with them. And if you start supporting this new form of programming, there will be more programming and more audience and more less scarcity of ad avails and lower prices for those ad avails and you'll be happy. So get cracking, kids.
Jarvis also notes the mobile porn phenomenon as one more example of how rapidly the video iPod is becoming a media force all its own.
Similarly, George Simpson makes the point in Online Media Daily:
Let's see if we can make this elementary enough so that even the faculty of the Columbia Business School can get it: The Internet is not a toy. It is not a passing phenomenon. It is the single most important development in the history of media (with the possible exception of the Grill Room at the Four Seasons). Nothing in media will ever be the same again (with the possible exception of creative expense accounting).
However, don't expect your favorite blog or podcast to jump on the videocasting bandwagon right away. Expense and technical expertise aside, the written and spoken word doesn't necessarily translate into compelling video. The videocasting future will belong to those who can think visually and translate their ideas into something an audience will want to watch... not talking heads. However, this will require developing new metaphors and visual techniques. Videobloggers already have a jump start on this, and these folks -- rather than the mainstream media -- may lead the way in videocasting innovation.
Technology's Role in the French Riots
The recent rioting in France appears to be getting a boost from mobile and Internet technology:
The use of technology may be resulting in less-decentralized disturbances that are harder to control. Whether and how the French authorities will respond to the rioters' use of technology will be an interesting question. If the unrest is indeed more coordinated than most people realize, it would fit in neatly with theories pointed out in the conservative Captain's Quarters blog, which notes accounts of connections with radical Islamic groups sending trained agitatiors to Europe from the Middle East.
RELATED: The futuramb blog notes how the recent disturbances are in line with the forecasts of Peter Schwartz and other futurists of immigration straining not just France, but the entire EU. Unrest, under this scenario, would lead to a reactionary rise in ultranationalism across Europe, a closing of borders, and the ultimate breakdown of the EU.
ALSO RELATED: Blogger Thomas P.M. Barnett believes the long-term solution to unrest and disenfranchisment is to encourage immigrants to create political parties that would create social connectivity and help these groups develop a voice in the government. Read the comments in the earlier-cited Captain's Quarters post for some possible implications of this.
UPDATE: Smart Mobs cites a report that three bloggers have been arrested and accused of inciting some of the French rioting.
Source: International Herald Tribune (via the New York Times), Smart Mobs
In its early days, the rioting appeared to spread spontaneously, but law enforcement officials said it was also being abetted by exhortations on the Internet. Worse, said Patrick Hamon, the national police spokesman, "what we notice is that the bands of youths are, little by little, getting more organized" and are sending attack messages by mobile phone texts.
Some sites on the Internet mourned the two teenagers; others issued insults to the police or warned that the uprisings would only give the anti-immigrant far right an opportunity.
The use of technology may be resulting in less-decentralized disturbances that are harder to control. Whether and how the French authorities will respond to the rioters' use of technology will be an interesting question. If the unrest is indeed more coordinated than most people realize, it would fit in neatly with theories pointed out in the conservative Captain's Quarters blog, which notes accounts of connections with radical Islamic groups sending trained agitatiors to Europe from the Middle East.
RELATED: The futuramb blog notes how the recent disturbances are in line with the forecasts of Peter Schwartz and other futurists of immigration straining not just France, but the entire EU. Unrest, under this scenario, would lead to a reactionary rise in ultranationalism across Europe, a closing of borders, and the ultimate breakdown of the EU.
ALSO RELATED: Blogger Thomas P.M. Barnett believes the long-term solution to unrest and disenfranchisment is to encourage immigrants to create political parties that would create social connectivity and help these groups develop a voice in the government. Read the comments in the earlier-cited Captain's Quarters post for some possible implications of this.
UPDATE: Smart Mobs cites a report that three bloggers have been arrested and accused of inciting some of the French rioting.
Source: International Herald Tribune (via the New York Times), Smart Mobs
Friday, November 4, 2005
Scenarios for Energy Futures
The recent rise in energy costs -- and the impact those higher costs will have on economies and lifestyles across the board -- has focused renewed attention on scenario planning.
It was Shell Oil who pioneered the use of scenario planning in the 1960s to forecast the disruptions in energy supplies that would occur in the next decade, helping it to plan its business models accordingly. Now, Shell has developed a new set of scenarios that envision a world grappling with energy shortages, higher costs and security concerns.
Similarly, the UK-based Energy Saving Trust has created two scenarios for 2020: One envisions a bleak world of energy and water rationing, a rejection of modern conveniences, a real estate crisis due to flooding from global warming, and the collapse of suburbia. The other suggests a more palatable world of sustainable, "green" design, local energy generation, and more intelligent use of resources.
The point of scenarios is that they are merely models, not firm predictions of reality. If we want to avoid the more pessimistic visions, the time to act is now. Says Philip Sellwood, Chief Executive of the Energy Saving Trust:
Source: WorldChanging
It was Shell Oil who pioneered the use of scenario planning in the 1960s to forecast the disruptions in energy supplies that would occur in the next decade, helping it to plan its business models accordingly. Now, Shell has developed a new set of scenarios that envision a world grappling with energy shortages, higher costs and security concerns.
Similarly, the UK-based Energy Saving Trust has created two scenarios for 2020: One envisions a bleak world of energy and water rationing, a rejection of modern conveniences, a real estate crisis due to flooding from global warming, and the collapse of suburbia. The other suggests a more palatable world of sustainable, "green" design, local energy generation, and more intelligent use of resources.
The point of scenarios is that they are merely models, not firm predictions of reality. If we want to avoid the more pessimistic visions, the time to act is now. Says Philip Sellwood, Chief Executive of the Energy Saving Trust:
The bleak picture of life in 2020 can be easily avoided just by taking small measures now to reduce excess levels of carbon emissions - one of the leading contributors to climate change... Rather than having to rely on harsher measures to urge consumers to take the issue seriously, we are encouraging people to act now and start saving at least 20% of their carbon dioxide emissions. This target is easily achievable by adopting a mix of simple measures such as improving insulation, turning appliances off standby, installing energy saving lightbulbs and turning the thermostat down by just one degree.
Source: WorldChanging
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