Technology: Chicken or Egg?

The Red Herring blog has a provocative series of essays exploring whether technology drives progress, or vice versa. The essays' argument is that "technological determinism" -- the belief that technology alone determines our destiny -- is false. Cultures have strong influence over the technologies they create, and communities apply the technologies that make sense to them. This, indeed, is part of the classic definition of disruptive technology: for a technology to disrupt, it must perform a task as well or better than existing technologies at a reasonable cost. Technology for technonogy's sake disrupts nothing.



Tracking the trajectory of new technologies is one of the most vexing tasks of anyone concerned with technology or futurism. The Red Herring essays defend their argument by noting that the best technology doesn't always win in the marketplace (Apple vs. IBM, Beta vs. VHS). So how can one predict what path technology will take? What will be a hit, and what will flop?



The one case where the theory of technological determinism makes most sense is when a technology is so revolutionary that it enables users in ways that they never considered before. Thomas Edison's phonograph, for instance, was a wholly original creation, not an improvement on an existing concept, as was his light bulb. When phonographs were first demonstrated, they were seen as so radical that observers thought they were instruments of the devil. Even so, market forces drove the phonograph's development; it never occurred to Edison to sell music recordings (he envisioned it as a business dictation tool), yet that proved to be the phonograph's most lucrative purpose.



In the end, the success or failure of a new technology is determined by a host of cultural, economic and regulatory factors, the combination of each of which is unique. The Internet, for instance, existed for nearly 30 years before the dotcom boom of the 1990s. Yet it didn't enter the popular consciousness until public access to it was allowed in the early '90s. That, combined with the rise of easy-to-use computers, the World Wide Web protocols, graphical web browsers, and the ability of computer users to dial into networks via modem created a "perfect storm" that led to the technology's explosive growth. So many variables are what make the futurist's job so difficult... as well as so fascinating.

Potential Hires Lacking Basic Skills

The Herman Trend Alert reports that, despite weaker than expected job numbers for November, employers are hiring, and unemployed people are returning to to work. The report says that this is part of a "silent strategy" on the part of businesses that has not yet shown up on the employment statistics.



In light of this growth, the Herman Group predicts that employers will have an increasingly difficult time hiring qualified workers. They note a survey of job-seekers who rate their problem-solving, stress management and even their computer skills to be inadequate. Whether this is a result of a lack of training and mentoring, or simply a poor self image, is not clear.



If both accellerated hiring and a shortage of skilled workers continue to be trends, employers will need to invest more in employee education and retention if they plan to remain competitive. Job seekers, for their part, will need to be more assertive in learning new skills and discovering their professional strengths and weaknesses.

Movie to Debut Over Cell Phone

Give some props to the Indians for being several steps ahead on multimedia delivery! A company called IndiaFM is planning to debut a full-length movie, "Rok Sako To Rok Lo", to video-enabled cell phones starting this Thursday.



Most people probably won't find cell phones to be a satisfactory medium for viewing full-length motion pictures. But as personal media devices are progressing rapidly, it's certainly a start in the right direction.



Sources: C|Net, Boing Boing

Broadsnatching 101

Engadget has a detailed post on how to set up various media software programs to "broadsnatch," or download audio and video feeds at once, and synch them to a portable media player. Instructions are available for Windows Media Player 10, iPodder, and BlogDigger.

Red vs. Blue Divide in Teen Parenthood

Statistics showing the number of teen parents (per 1000 girls 15-19) reveal much higher numbers in the so-called "red" states than the "blue" ones. Mississippi has the highest teen birth rate (64.7), while New Hampshire has the lowest (20). In fact, in the chart below, there's an almost even divide in birth rates between red and blue states:

Click for full-size image

Liberals point to these statistics to argue that sex education in these states -- which obsensibly places a higher value on abstinence education -- is not working. Conservatives counterargue that the data simply shows that girls in blue states are more likely to seek abortions. However, the data here is too inconclusive for making either assertion. Among the factors that may be weighing into these figures are:

• The number of married teens in these statistics (a table of teen pregnancies to girls under 15 might be more revealing).
• Population differences in states, which can make the data less clear-cut.
• Economic and ethnic breakdowns.

In order to make better sense of these figures, more research -- without political or moral baggage -- needs to be done to determine what works and what doesn't in sex ed. We also need to better understand the cultural drivers that would cause such a sharp divide between red and blue states.

High Tech Wish Lists

Now that the holiday shopping season is in full swing (and down to the wire for those celebrating Hanukkah), everybody is issuing their lists of must-have tech gifts. I thought about writing my own, but there are so many excellent ones, I thought it'd make more sense to point to those instead.



Wired, of course, has its list of geeky tools for 2004, ranging from historical artifacts (such as a 1951 UNIVAC 1 tape) to high-tech apparel to cool items under $30. I4U has a similar shopping guide, as does the New York Times' "Circuits" section. In a related vein, C|Net and Yahoo! both have articles offering advice on high-tech holiday gift-giving.



Are you planning to ask Mom and Dad for an iPod, yet fear they won't have any idea what you're talking about? Or has someone asked you for a gadget you've never heard of, and you don't know where to begin looking for it? Creativegood.com has published a PDF guide to help bring the non-technical up to speed.



Finally, if you'd rather give than receive this holiday season, visit WhatGoesAround.org to create a "givelist" that allows others to give to charities in your name. Or, use SecretSanta.org to look up toy drives in your area.



Source: Boing Boing

Holiday Shoppers are Hitting the Web

So far, online retailers are having a very merry Christmas, according to one report that monitors holiday spending. According to the eSpending Report, published by Goldman Sachs, Harris Interactive and Nielsen/NetRatings, online holiday spending is up 19% from 2003, with consumers spending nearly $9 billion online so far this season. The top sales categories are apparel, toys, video games and DVDs, approximately in that order.



Nielsen/NetRatings also noted that for the week ending Nov. 14, online traffic was up 60% over the week before, with online shoppers leading the charge. Although many of these netizens went online to browse and comparison shop, many were spending money... perhaps explaining why holiday sales at some retailers have been below expectations.



One interesting beneficiary of the growth of online shopping are luxury retailers such as Tiffany and Neiman Marcus. The Web allows these high-end stores to reach consumers who might not live near one of their brick-and-mortar outlets. Plus, a better-informed consumer base is more likely to be interested in luxury goods, and more brand-aware than ever. These retailers can also offer personalization services online, such as initialing and custom fitting.



Source: Washington Post