The combination of hurricane damage to tourist spots, stringent security and visa application procedures and a general sense of anti-Americanism abroad has resulted in fewer visitors to the US over the past several years.
According to the Travel Industry Association (TIA), overseas travel to the United States has declined by 15% since 2000, and visa applications have dropped by a third since 9/11. This is significant, since overseas tourism contributed $93 billion to the US economy in 2004.
As a result, the US tourism industry is expected to launch an aggressive marketing and PR campaign to improve America's image abroad and promote US tourism. It may also support fewer entry restrictions, a move that would certainly put it at odds with security organizations.
On top of this, fewer foreign students are applying to US universities... reducing the overall student pool, and forcing schools to become more aggressive in their recruiting. Smaller colleges without name recognition or big marketing budgets could be especially hard hit over the next few years.
Source: Herman Group
Wednesday, November 2, 2005
Tuesday, November 1, 2005
Website Leaks Discounter Deals for the Holidays
One more way in which technology is disrupting retail is evidenced by the website Gottadeal.com, which today leaked what it says is Wal-Mart's planned discounts for the upcoming holiday season. Among the bargains the giant discounter is supposedly planning for Black Friday are an HP Pavilion notebook for $398 (no rebates), a 12-cup coffee maker for $4.24, and an HP Photosmart digital camera for $98.
Gottadeal.com founder Brad Olson says that he got the list from "someone close to the production process for the [store's] ads." Wal-Mart neither confirms nor denies the accuracy of the information, though some observers suggest that posting discounts this early could give Wal-Mart an edge among shoppers who increasingly rely on the Internet to find bargains, and who begin their holiday shopping earlier than ever.
Gottadeal.com also lists discounts from other stores. The site is apparently a victim of its own success; because of the attention it's gained from various media sources, Gottadeal.com has had to temporarily shut down.
UPDATE: As of today (11/3), Gottadeal.com is fully back online, including its Black Friday section.
Source: CNN/Money
Gottadeal.com founder Brad Olson says that he got the list from "someone close to the production process for the [store's] ads." Wal-Mart neither confirms nor denies the accuracy of the information, though some observers suggest that posting discounts this early could give Wal-Mart an edge among shoppers who increasingly rely on the Internet to find bargains, and who begin their holiday shopping earlier than ever.
Gottadeal.com also lists discounts from other stores. The site is apparently a victim of its own success; because of the attention it's gained from various media sources, Gottadeal.com has had to temporarily shut down.
UPDATE: As of today (11/3), Gottadeal.com is fully back online, including its Black Friday section.
Source: CNN/Money
Microsoft Goes "Live"
In response to the success of Google's platform-free application development, Microsoft has unveiled its "Live" initiative. Like Google, Windows Live will be a web service-based, data-driven, hardware-independent, ad-supported environment. Office Live will be an "'Internet based services for growing and managing your business online.' extensible, thousands of partners. ad supported level with tier above requiring subscription."
Bill Gates personally announced the initiative today. The blog Read/Write Web describes the Live program as "...a bit of Web 2.0 mixed with Microsoft's live naming theme–Live Meeting, XBox Live. Services = Software, in a broad way, from hosted services like email and CRM to MSN and mapping mashups."
In other words, Microsoft is scrambling to catch up to Google and Yahoo in the web services space. It will be interesting to see how Live pans out... for as Windows 95 and Internet Explorer proved, Microsoft excels (pardon the pun) at coming from behind to take the market lead.
Read the official Microsoft press release and fact sheet on the Live initiatives here. Or, visit the Windows Live Ideas site to try beta versions of some Live applications.
Source: ZDNet
Bill Gates personally announced the initiative today. The blog Read/Write Web describes the Live program as "...a bit of Web 2.0 mixed with Microsoft's live naming theme–Live Meeting, XBox Live. Services = Software, in a broad way, from hosted services like email and CRM to MSN and mapping mashups."
In other words, Microsoft is scrambling to catch up to Google and Yahoo in the web services space. It will be interesting to see how Live pans out... for as Windows 95 and Internet Explorer proved, Microsoft excels (pardon the pun) at coming from behind to take the market lead.
Read the official Microsoft press release and fact sheet on the Live initiatives here. Or, visit the Windows Live Ideas site to try beta versions of some Live applications.
Source: ZDNet
The Big Crash
Most futurists take progress for granted. Even when they warn about problems in the offing, they believe that solutions are available and feasible. However, some scholars and researchers warn us that innovation and prosperity are not inevitable, and that, in fact, we may be lurching toward a dark age.
A leading proponent of this theory, physicist Jonathan Huebner of the Naval Air Warfare Center, has attempted to chart progress based on the rate of innovation. Huebner figures that the current rate of innovation -- seven important technological breakthroughs per billion people per year -- is the same as it was in 1600, and that the rate of innovation has been declining ever since it peaked in 1873.
Needless to say, the work of Huebner, Northwestern University management professor Ben Jones and others is controversial, with noted futurists such as Ray Kurzweil and K. Eric Drexler dismissing it out of hand. But such concerns are exacerbated by worries over pollution, energy shortages, a growing gap between rich and poor, religious backlashes and the threat to democracy posed by terrorism:
Ormerod believes that progress may occur in 200-year waves... and the wave we've been riding since the 18th century Enlightenment may be coming to an end. Instead of the utopian playground that's been promised us, our future may resemble the situation faced by Cuba in the 1990s -- survivable, if not very pretty:
Using Cuba as a model is problematic, as its communist dictatorship lacks a self-correcting free market. But hypothetically speaking, could a capitalist consumer culture accustomed to plenty adjust to such a change? If we can't count on technology to come to our rescue, we might have to. The result, though, would be a global upheaval unlike anything we have ever seen. Revolutions and a return to now-discredited political ideas as communism and fascism could sweep the globe, with the greatest pain being felt by the most prosperous nations.
Assuming such a crash is inevitable, it is imminent? Although some researchers believe the earth may have as little as 10 years of crude oil in the ground, that figure is subject to much debate (geologist Kenneth Deffeyes predicts that world oil production could peak as early as this month!). Many other factors would be at work in determine when and how badly the world economy would crash. It's possible that we may stave off the worst effects for another couple of generations... or rise to the challenge and embrace alternatives that would help us break the cycle.
RELATED: For a more optimistic assessment of the world, read this essay by David Shribman.
Sources: Times Online, AiKnowledge
A leading proponent of this theory, physicist Jonathan Huebner of the Naval Air Warfare Center, has attempted to chart progress based on the rate of innovation. Huebner figures that the current rate of innovation -- seven important technological breakthroughs per billion people per year -- is the same as it was in 1600, and that the rate of innovation has been declining ever since it peaked in 1873.
Needless to say, the work of Huebner, Northwestern University management professor Ben Jones and others is controversial, with noted futurists such as Ray Kurzweil and K. Eric Drexler dismissing it out of hand. But such concerns are exacerbated by worries over pollution, energy shortages, a growing gap between rich and poor, religious backlashes and the threat to democracy posed by terrorism:
If Huebner and Jones are right... if innovation is the engine of economic progress — and almost everybody agrees it is — growth may be coming to an end. Since our entire financial order — interest rates, pension funds, insurance, stock markets — is predicated on growth, the social and economic consequences may be cataclysmic.
Is it really happening? Will progress grind to a halt? The long view of history gives conflicting evidence. Paul Ormerod, a London-based economist and author of the book Why Most Things Fail, is unsure. "I am in two minds about this. Biologists have abandoned the idea of progress — we just are where we are. But humanity is so far in advance of anything that has gone before that it seems to be a qualitative leap."
Ormerod believes that progress may occur in 200-year waves... and the wave we've been riding since the 18th century Enlightenment may be coming to an end. Instead of the utopian playground that's been promised us, our future may resemble the situation faced by Cuba in the 1990s -- survivable, if not very pretty:
The American trade embargo, combined with the collapse of Cuba's communist allies in eastern Europe, suddenly deprived the island of imports. Without oil, public transport shut down and TV broadcasts finished early in the evening to save power. Industrial farms needed fuel and spare parts, pesticides and fertiliser — none of which were available. Consequently, the average Cuban diet dropped from about 3,000 calories per day in 1989 to 1,900 calories four years later. In effect, Cubans were skipping a meal a day, every day, week after month after year. Of necessity, the country converted to sustainable farming techniques, replacing artificial fertiliser with ecological alternatives, rotating crops to keep soil rich, and using teams of oxen instead of tractors. There are still problems supplying meat and milk, but over time Cubans regained the equivalent of that missing meal. And ecologists hailed their achievement in creating the world's largest working model of largely sustainable agriculture, largely independent of oil.
Using Cuba as a model is problematic, as its communist dictatorship lacks a self-correcting free market. But hypothetically speaking, could a capitalist consumer culture accustomed to plenty adjust to such a change? If we can't count on technology to come to our rescue, we might have to. The result, though, would be a global upheaval unlike anything we have ever seen. Revolutions and a return to now-discredited political ideas as communism and fascism could sweep the globe, with the greatest pain being felt by the most prosperous nations.
Assuming such a crash is inevitable, it is imminent? Although some researchers believe the earth may have as little as 10 years of crude oil in the ground, that figure is subject to much debate (geologist Kenneth Deffeyes predicts that world oil production could peak as early as this month!). Many other factors would be at work in determine when and how badly the world economy would crash. It's possible that we may stave off the worst effects for another couple of generations... or rise to the challenge and embrace alternatives that would help us break the cycle.
RELATED: For a more optimistic assessment of the world, read this essay by David Shribman.
Sources: Times Online, AiKnowledge
Contactless Debit/Credit Cards Go Mainstream
The familiar magnetic-striped credit and debit cards may be replaced with contactless cards sooner than we think. After years in the theoretical and experimental stages, contactless cards are being rolled out by major US banks.
JPMorgan Chase, MBNA, HSBC USA, Citibank and KeyBank are all planning to distribute several million contactless Visa and Mastercard cards within the next year. Major retailers are already installing contactless readers in anticipation of consumer demand.
Security concerns about contactless cards include the potential for data thieves to intercept the 128-bit triple-DES transmission between card and reader, and the possible use of contraband readers. Proposed solutions to such theft include on/off switches for cards and biometric verification.
Source: ePaynews.com
JPMorgan Chase, MBNA, HSBC USA, Citibank and KeyBank are all planning to distribute several million contactless Visa and Mastercard cards within the next year. Major retailers are already installing contactless readers in anticipation of consumer demand.
Security concerns about contactless cards include the potential for data thieves to intercept the 128-bit triple-DES transmission between card and reader, and the possible use of contraband readers. Proposed solutions to such theft include on/off switches for cards and biometric verification.
Source: ePaynews.com
Become Multilingual in One Easy Step!
Learning other languages may become a thing of the past... not because everyone will begin speaking a single language, but because speech-to-speech translation is becoming increasingly sophisticated.
New speech recognition technology measures muscles in the speaker's face and neck to translate his or her speech into multiple languages. Such a device, developed by Carnegie Mellon University, was debuted at the International Workshop on Spoken Language Translation 2005, held October 24-25 in Pittsburgh. Currently, these monitors are in the form of electrodes, but eventually they could be implanted into one's throat. Instead of using grammatical rules, as does most contemporary translation technology, these new approaches use statistical analysis to make the translation.
The technology remains imperfect, but its developers believe that a commercially viable version could be ready in 10 years. Becoming multilingual, then, would go from spending years studying multiple languages to a simple surgical procedure.
Source: Roland Piquepaille's Tech Trends (ZDNet)
New speech recognition technology measures muscles in the speaker's face and neck to translate his or her speech into multiple languages. Such a device, developed by Carnegie Mellon University, was debuted at the International Workshop on Spoken Language Translation 2005, held October 24-25 in Pittsburgh. Currently, these monitors are in the form of electrodes, but eventually they could be implanted into one's throat. Instead of using grammatical rules, as does most contemporary translation technology, these new approaches use statistical analysis to make the translation.
The technology remains imperfect, but its developers believe that a commercially viable version could be ready in 10 years. Becoming multilingual, then, would go from spending years studying multiple languages to a simple surgical procedure.
Source: Roland Piquepaille's Tech Trends (ZDNet)
A Floating City
A solution to low-sea-level architecture being explored in the Netherlands -- and that may prove useful in rebuilding New Orleans -- is floating architecture. The Dutch have been experimenting with floating greenhouses and "amphibious housing" for some time now.
Says the blog BLDGBLOG of the approach:
Says the blog BLDGBLOG of the approach:
Without going back through the specifics of Dutch terrain – vast sections of which are actually reclaimed Atlantic seafloor, only existing as dry land through a complicated network of levees, canals, and seawalls – it is worth quickly highlighting the obvious: that in a "post-Katrina world," whatever that is, a world with rising sealevels and accelerating polar thaws, architecture that can adapt to its hydrological surroundings – that is, architecture that can float – is now very much in vogue.
"The goal," as the New York Times writes, "is a town that can live with flooding, not just wall it off, using a variety of floating structures and an extensive system for rainwater storage, among other means."
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